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EuroCOIN Indicator Shows Rise of Economic Growth in Euro Area Slowing
The latest value of the EuroCOIN indicator released by CEPR shows:
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For the sixth month in a row, the Euro Area economy showed positive growth in May. EuroCOIN rose to 0.626 in May from a revised figure of 0.591 for April. The figure for March was also revised upwards to 0.570 and February upwards to 0.567. These new figures confirm the positive trend started in December 2001. However, the rise in the rate of economic growth for the Euro Area slowed during March, April and May.
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The revised figures for EuroCOIN show that economic activity in the Euro Area is growing at approximately the same rate as the average for the last fifteen years. The contribution of surveys and financial variables to the indicator are positive and rising. However, the contributions of most other variables are negative. The contribution of employment variables has marginally improved while industrial production and interest rate variables have declined.
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Between December 2000 and November 2001 EuroCOIN fell and in September 2001 became negative for the first time since the end of 1995. In December 2001 the indicator showed an upturn. This positive signal was confirmed by the positive figures for January, February, March, April and May 2002. However, since March the rise in rate of growth has declined.
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Newly available data have led to upward revisions of EuroCOIN for January, February, March and April. The overall trend rate for economic growth has been confirmed by the revised figures for EuroCOIN. The slight decline in growth that was identified by the indicator for March last month is now no longer observed.
Notes for Editors:
CEPR is an international network of 600 Research Fellows based mainly in Europe, who collaborate through the Centre in research and its dissemination. CEPR helps its Research Fellows to develop projects, obtain their funding, administer them and disseminate their results. The Centre's research ranges from open economy macroeconomics to trade policy, from the economic transformation of Central and Eastern Europe to regionalism in the world economy.
Who produces the Indicator? EuroCOIN
is published on the 28th of each month by CEPR and
constructed by a team of academic researchers associated with
CEPR. The team comprises: Filippo
Altissimo (Banca d'Italia and
CEPR), Antonio Bassanetti (Banca d'Italia),Riccardo Christadoro (Banca
d'Italia), Mario
Forni (Universita di Modena and
CEPR), Marc Hellin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles), Marco Lippi
(Universita di Roma), Lucrezia
Reichlin (ECARES, Universite
Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR), Giovanni Veronese (Banca d'Italia)
Contact Information:
For interview requests and further information about CEPR please contact CEPR Press Officer Robbie
Lonie, Tel: (44 020) 7878 2918, Mobile: 07740519225 or email
rlonie@cepr.org
For more information: http://www.cepr.org/data/eurocoin
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