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EuroCOIN signals two consecutive months of weakening of euro area cyclical expansion

The latest value of the EuroCOIN indicator released by CEPR shows:

  • For the second consecutive month EuroCOIN shows a deceleration of the growth rate. The indicator fell from 0.590 in May to 0.513 in June and to 0.504 in July. From December 2001 throughout the first quarter of the current year, we had a clear signal of cyclical expansion. In April and May, the rate of growth of EuroCOIN stabilized. In June and July it clearly declined.

  • Thus the downward revision of the June figure and the preliminary estimate for July confirms the signals of a slowdown of the euro area expansion already detected in the last months.

  • On a quarterly basis, however, EuroCOIN shows a higher rate of growth in the second quarter of 2002 than in the first quarter.

  • A more detailed analysis of the component of EuroCOIN shows that declining growth is explained by almost all variables used to construct the index, ranging from industrial production, to labour and financial series. 

  • Is the expansion of the euro area already coming to an end? Clouds have now appeared on the horizon as the indicator shows declining cyclical growth for the last two months. It is too early to say with certainty, however, that trend growth in the euro area is now set upon a downward path since the estimates for the last two months are based on a limited number of variables and are therefore subject to revision.

Notes for Editors:

CEPR is an international network of 600 Research Fellows based mainly in Europe, who collaborate through the Centre in research and its dissemination. CEPR helps its Research Fellows to develop projects, obtain their funding, administer them and disseminate their results. The Centre's research ranges from open economy macroeconomics to trade policy, from the economic transformation of Central and Eastern Europe to regionalism in the world economy.

Who produces the Indicator? EuroCOIN monthly by CEPR and constructed by a team of academic researchers associated with CEPR. The team comprises: Filippo Altissimo (Banca d'Italia and CEPR), Antonio Bassanetti (Banca d'Italia),Riccardo Christadoro (Banca d'Italia), Mario Forni (Universita di Modena and CEPR), Marc Hellin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles), Marco Lippi (Universita di Roma), Lucrezia Reichlin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR), Giovanni Veronese (Banca d'Italia)

Contact Information:

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For more information: http://www.cepr.org/data/eurocoin

 
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