Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee
In 2002 CEPR established a Business Cycle Dating Committee for the euro area. The Committee’s mission is to establish the chronology of the euro area business cycle, by identifying the recessions and expansions of the 11 original euro area member countries from 1970 to 1998, and of the euro area as a whole since 1999.
The Committee has identified three cyclical episodes since 1970, with peaks and troughs dated as follows:
Table 1. Chronology of euro area business cycles
|
PEAK
|
TROUGH
|
| 1974q3 | 1975q1 |
| 1980q1 | 1982q3 |
| 1992q1 | 1993q3 |
Thus the Committee has identified three recessions:
- 1974q3 to 1975q1
- 1980q1 to 1982q3
- 1992q1 to 1993q3
More information on these episodes can be found here.
The Committee concluded that the euro area experienced a prolonged pause
in the growth of economic activity rather than a full-fledged recession
in 2003q1 and 2003q2.
More information on this episode can be found here
The Committee concluded on 31 March 2009 that economic activity in the euro area peaked
in the first quarter of 2008. The peak marked the end of an expansion that began in the
third quarter of 1993 and lasted 57 quarters. Identifying the month in which activity peaked
is more difficult for the euro area, but the Committee’s best judgement is January 2008.
More information on this episode can be found here.